The first half of the year delivered what the market had waited two years for: container train schedules became predictable. Average deviation from the planned arrival fell to 2.4 days against 6.1 in 2024. That changes inventory planning rather than the rate arithmetic.
What happened to capacity
The number of scheduled services grew, but unevenly. Xi’an and Chengdu run daily departures while smaller origins operate twice weekly. For a cargo owner that means something simple: the choice of loading point affects transit more than the choice of operator.
- Xi’an — daily departures and the shortest transhipment queue
- Chengdu — daily, convenient for cargo from the west of the country
- Zhengzhou — three times weekly, 4–7% cheaper
- Wuhan — twice weekly, suitable only for non-urgent consignments
When rail undercuts sea
A direct rate comparison almost always favours sea. Add the cost of capital tied up in cargo for 35 days, the safety stock it forces and demurrage exposure, however, and for goods above EUR 12/kg rail wins on total landed cost.
The container rate is not the cost of delivery. The cost of delivery includes the money sitting inside the container.
What a cargo owner should do
Fix slots a quarter ahead — spot bookings cost 15–22% more and guarantee no date. Check whether you need a reefer slot specifically in winter: on the Kazakh section temperatures reach −35 °C and equipment availability is limited.